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Astros-Rangers ALCS Game 5 preview: Pitching matchups, odds, x-factor, analysis

By now we know the Astros own Globe Life Field.

And they sure don’t mind these three-run head starts.

In their 10-3 Game 4 win, Houston jumped out to an early lead for the second night in a row and weathered a Rangers comeback attempt by staying on the attack. Texas manager Bruce Bochy said before the game that starter Andrew Heaney could go 75 or 80 pitches if needed. He went 22 and was pulled after recording only two outs. The game began: Jose Altuve double, Maurcio Dubón single, Alex Bregman two-run triple, Yordan Alvarez run-scoring single. The entire Astros lineup batted before a Ranger did.

Here are the nine Andrew Heaney pitches the Astros swung at in the first inning. Middle everything. pic.twitter.com/yX1SXYwzV2

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) October 20, 2023

The Rangers tied it up after Adolis García and Corey Seager dingers.

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But the Astros are relentless, especially with mistake pitches, especially in this ballpark, where they’ve scored 69 runs in their past six games. They loaded the bases in the fourth against Rangers right-hander Dane Dunning, Heaney’s piggy-back partner (who did all the work in this one). Alvarez nearly smashed a grand slam off lefty reliever Cody Bradford, but it fell a few feet short for a loud sacrifice fly. The Globe Life patrons exhaled. Then the next hitter, José Abreu, uncorked a three-run homer. (Alvarez and Abreu are the first teammates in postseason history to have at least four homers and at least 10 RBI in their team’s first eight games. That’s not a bad lefty-righty tag team.)

The rout was on.

So, after four games of neither side holding serve at home, it’s all square. Game 5 in Arlington will be a rematch of Game 1 starters. Jordan Montgomery quieted the Astros lineup in Game 1. It will be harder to do that a second time, now that the bats are awake and making an unholy racket. Montgomery has given the Rangers big starts before. They’ll need another one on Friday.

AL Championship Series Game 5: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Series: Tied, 2-2

Start time: 5:07 p.m. ET on FS1

Pitching matchup: Justin Verlander vs. Jordan Montgomery

Game 5 pitching matchup

Astros: RHP Justin Verlander
2023 stats: 13-8, 3.22 ERA, 162 1/3 innings, 144 strikeouts, 1.13 WHIP

Verlander wasn’t the Astros’ issue in Game 1. He allowed two runs over 6 2/3 innings. But it’s worth noting just how far from vintage Verlander he was. Broadcaster and Immaculate Grid cheat code C.J. Nitkowski noted that only one ALCS/NLCS starter since 2009 had gotten fewer whiffs through five innings than Verlander’s two: Zack Greinke had one in the 2011 NLCS. Verlander looked more like his old, er, younger self later in this start, with five of his six strikeouts coming from the fifth inning on. He finished with seven whiffs, all of which came on sliders (five) and curves (two).

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That’s right. The Rangers swung at 27 four-seamers — the pitch Verlander typically throws half the time — and missed none. The velocity was there. The fastball sat 94.3 mph, and he ran it up as high as 96 mph. But it just didn’t miss bats. Given that context, it’s impressive Verlander held off the Rangers as well as he did in Game 1. He clearly wasn’t working with his best stuff. Expect Verlander to establish the elevated heater early in Game 5.

Rangers: LHP Jordan Montgomery
2023 stats: 10-11, 3.20 ERA, 188 2/3 innings, 166 strikeouts, 1.19 WHIP

Montgomery’s fastball-curve combo played so well in Game 1, particularly in neutralizing Yordan Alvarez, that the curve got the insider thread treatment afterward and earned a new nickname: The Death Ball.

Jordan Montgomery strikes out Yordan Alvarez with the curve 🤢

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/E2dEax1B1h

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 16, 2023

(That emoji use is especially cruel given Alvarez was battling a virus.)

Speaking of insiders, Ken Rosenthal had a great Montgomery story off Game 1 with this insight from catcher Jonah Heim: “Nothing’s straight and nothing’s the same. Same release point. Ball gets on you. Big guy. Sometimes he steps on the brakes with a curveball. Other times he rams in a four-seamer on you.

“It makes my job easier when he can do all that.”

Including the one in the above video, Montgomery got six whiffs on his curveball, and he sinkered (sunk?) and four-seamed the rest of the way to this line: 6 1/3 innings, six baserunners, no runs and a W. It was a masterclass. Through three starts this postseason, Montgomery has a 2.08 ERA in 17 1/3 innings, with 20 hits allowed and 13 strikeouts to two walks. He has commanded his pitches beautifully. Viva la Death Ball.

X-factor

Leody Taveras

The nine-hitter doesn’t typically qualify for X-factor status, but Taveras fits the bill here for a few reasons.

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First, he has nine hits and seven walks in nine games this postseason.

Second, he walked, singled and homered off Verlander in Game 1.

Third, as we saw in Game 3, he has a glove on him in center field, with tremendous range and arm strength.

And fourth, he’s got wheels. The Rangers don’t steal much. No playoff team had fewer stolen bases in the regular season. They’ve stolen four times in four tries this postseason; Taveras, with his 92nd-percentile sprint speed, has three of them. (He had 14 steals in the regular season.) With Verlander on the mound this season, would-be base stealers swiped 11 bags in 13 tries. He’s had a caught stealing rate under 25 percent in each of his past three seasons. Taveras can give Verlander and the Astros fits on multiple fronts in Game 5.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Rangers win AL pennant, validate status as team of destiny

Notable quotable

Bochy, on why the Astros hit so well at Globe Life Field:

“Gosh, I wish I had a good answer for you. Seems like we make more mistakes here, to be honest. That’s what I see. Going back and going through the games, we’re just not quite executing as well. You go to the earlier series in September, I mean, we made a ton of mistakes. They’re a good club. They’re a really good hitting club, and they’re going to take advantage of that.”

And he said that before the Astros broke out the bats in Game 4.

(Top photo: Adam Hunger / Getty Images))

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Jenniffer Sheldon

Update: 2024-06-27