Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect Tyler Tullio is outplaying the high picks

The Edmonton Oilers made a trade at the 2020 draft that may one day be famous.
On Oct. 7, the club dealt pick No. 76 (Danil Gushchin) to the San Jose Sharks for pick No. 100 (Carter Savoie) and No. 126 (Tyler Tullio).
Two years later, all three men landed in the AHL. Since the three prospects are forwards, comparing their scoring results offers an early look at a fascinating deal. Sorted by goals per game.
| Player | GP | Goals-Game | Points-Game |
|---|---|---|---|
48 | 0.27 | 0.52 | |
50 | 0.25 | 0.53 | |
34 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
Tullio is at the top of the list, although it’s basically a tie offensively with Gushchin. All three of these young players are performing well, but Tullio’s story deserves extra attention due to how his season began, and where it is today.
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He has adjusted quickly and his game is more complete than the other Oilers rookies. In fact, his effectiveness goes back several years.
Month by month
You can find out much about young players simply by keeping track of playing time, or in the case of the AHL, games played. At the beginning of the year, Tullio didn’t play every game and was used sparingly in several he played in. The progress through the depth chart is clear, as Tullio didn’t emerge as an everyday player until January.
| Month | Games (overall) | Goals-Game | Points-Game |
|---|---|---|---|
October | 6 (6) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
November | 10 (12) | 0.2 | 0.4 |
December | 8 (11) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
January | 12 (12) | 0.33 | 0.83 |
February | 11 (11) | 0.45 | 0.64 |
March | 2 (2) | 0 | 0 |
His goals and points totals per game have increased smartly through the season as playing time increased.
His first shift in pro hockey came with Noah Philp and Filip Engaras. Engaras was on an AHL contract and dealt to the Utica Canucks in January. Tullio and Philp were new hires, neither with pedigree, so the feature minutes landed with first-round selection Xavier Bourgault.
Same as it ever was in the NHL, but Tullio and Philp have flipped the script, and in Tullio’s case, at age 20, it’s a big deal and could indicate a more promising future than his early-season games played totals imply.
Outscoring
Tullio’s draft day scouting report suggested his range of skills made him well suited to even-strength outscoring. It often takes a year or two in the AHL to translate junior-level skills into AHL success, but Tullio appears to have arrived in pro hockey as a complete player. Here are the Condors rookies this season and their goal differentials at even strength.
| Player | Age | GF-GA | Goal Share |
|---|---|---|---|
24 | 32-25 | 56 pct | |
20 | 29-23 | 56 pct | |
20 | 31-25 | 55 pct | |
20 | 12-22 | 35 pct |
Three of the four rookies are posting impressive numbers, with Savoie lagging — partly due to injury. On-ice goal differential at even strength needs to be placed into context, and one way to do it is by comparing team success to individual numbers.
Here are the percentages for each 2022-23 rookie compared to what is happening when an individual player is off the ice in the discipline. I’ve also added in rookies over the last five seasons who were 20 and spent much of the season in Bakersfield at that age.
| Player | Year | On-Ice | Off-Ice |
|---|---|---|---|
2018-19 | 69.2 | 52.8 | |
2018-19 | 69.1 | 58.3 | |
2019-20 | 50 | 42.5 | |
2022-23 | 55.8 | 48.7 | |
2022-23 | 55.4 | 48.6 | |
2021-22 | 57.4 | 56.4 | |
2021-22 | 47.5 | 58 |
This is a strong list of AHL forwards who were rookies at 20 over the last five seasons.
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Tyler Benson’s numbers are skewed due to playing with Cooper Marody (also a rookie that season, but age 21) driving possession and results at even strength.
The opposite was true for Kailer Yamamoto, whose most common centre during much of his rookie AHL season was Brad Malone. A quality veteran, but it was Benson who was running with Marody that season.
Tullio and Bourgault are running in good company (Ryan McLeod is a comparable) but it is Tullio who began the season as a part-time player on the fourth line.
It’s important to note that the group that includes all players listed from Bourgault through the top of the graph are high achievers as flat-out rookies. The 2018-19 team was superior, so the current group (and McLeod) probably deserve extra credit for impressive results on a team that is not dominant.
The Condors story
Tullio is finding the range with his shot, as his 17.1 shooting percentage trails only Savoie (18.6 percent) among Condors regulars this season.
His rise up the depth chart has been nothing short of sensational. He is now a feature player and may well open the Saturday game with Philp and Seth Griffith on the top line.
Due respect to Bourgault, who was likely in trade conversations at the NHL deadline (Edmonton traded 2022 first-round pick Reid Schaefer to the Nashville Predators in the Mattias Ekholm deal), the most exciting AHL development for the Oilers organization this season is surely Tullio’s emergence.
His impact on the Condors went from a whisper to a scream and since Christmas, his impact trumps the other rookies who are 20. Here are the numbers, including all game states.
- Tullio: 27 games, 9-8-17 (.630)
- Bourgault: 27 games, 3-10-13 (.481)
- Savoie: 15 games, 5-1-6 (.400)
There may have been some doubts about Tullio early in the season, the healthy scratches and depth minutes suggest he was not impressing the coaching staff.
Things have changed.
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I spoke with Tullio in the fall of 2021 and found a confident player who was aware of what he could bring to pro hockey: “I have a lot of tools in my toolbox. I’ve put up the numbers. I’m able to put the puck in the back of the net, make plays. I’m not afraid to go to the dirty areas. I use my body, play hard and tough, I think I have a really high (hockey) IQ.”
It isn’t bragging if you can back it up. Increasingly, that is the story of Tullio in Bakersfield. He’s outplaying older and more highly touted prospects and he is getting noticed.
He can play either wing and has spent some time at centre this season. His release isn’t a rocket but it’s quick and accurate. He’s a quality passer.
It often takes a year or more for a rookie pro to arrive from junior and make the kind of plays Tullio is making right now in Bakersfield. Credit the coaching staff for elevating him quickly when he began to push and Tullio for adapting so quickly.
It’s an unusual performance spike for a player chosen No. 126.
Tullio is a natural right winger and the Oilers began a major makeover at the deadline with the trade of Jesse Puljujarvi. Tullio is positioning himself to push for NHL time with his strong AHL performance.
(Photo: Brett Holmes / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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