Mandels Final Thoughts: How the CFP committee might sort through the chaos
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The Athletic has live coverage of the College Football Playoff rankings selection show.
And now, 20 Final Thoughts from Championship Weekend, only around 14 of which will be outdated by the time the committee reaches its verdict.
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1. Well, at least we know this: Michigan (13-0) and Washington (13-0) will see their names called on Sunday as part of the College Football Playoff. Congrats, guys. You gave the selection committee two fewer things to worry about as the members’ heads hit their pillows in Dallas late Saturday night. Maybe you even freed up an extra 20 minutes for their late-night Whataburger run.
But there has never been this much uncertainty heading into a Selection Sunday. And for that, you can thank Alabama, our familiar nuisance who just can’t let an early December go by without butting its head into the conversation.
2. When at long last one of the four remaining undefeated Power 5 teams finally went down, it was not Washington, a 9.5-point underdog in its own conference title game, or Florida State, which was down to a third-string freshman quarterback.
It was two-time defending national champion Georgia suffering its first loss in two years, leaving us with four teams — 13-0 Florida State, 12-1 Alabama, 12-1 Georgia and 12-1 Texas — vying for the other two Playoff berths. Someone really ought to make the thing a bigger field.
3. While I’m not privy to the committee’s deliberations, I’ve participated in the annual mock selection exercise the CFP holds for media members. So I at least have a decent idea of the process. Which I will take you through now.
4. First, each member will select his or her “top-six” teams, forming a pool of candidates for the group to discuss before collectively ranking teams 1 through 3. That first part should be easy. The pool will be (in alphabetical order): Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, Michigan, Texas and Washington. Ohio State, which did not reach its championship game and owns just two Top 25 wins (No. 10 Penn State and No. 17 Notre Dame), would miss the cut.
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Then the committee would hold their first vote, which would start with No. 1 Michigan, then No. 2 Washington. They would pore over all four remaining teams’ resumes and pick one to come in just after the Wolverines and Huskies. At least initially, I imagine it will be undefeated Florida State.
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5. But Florida State stinks without its quarterback! … How can you possibly say they’re still a top-four team? … Can you seriously say with a straight face they wouldn’t lose by 30 to Michigan? I hear you. The Noles’ 16-6 ACC Championship Game win against No. 14 Louisville was undeniably “fugly.” Emergency QB Brock Glenn went just 8-for-21 for 55 yards, as Mike Norvell made liberal use of the Wildcat to compensate.
But unless this year’s committee operates entirely differently than the eight before it, I believe they will evaluate FSU for its entire body of work, not just its worst singular performance — one in which the Noles still never trailed, and their defense dominated Louisville’s top-20 offense, holding it to 188 yards.
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6. Next, the committee will add three more teams to the pool not yet ranked — likely 11-1 Ohio State, 11-2 Oregon and 10-2 Missouri — and rank teams four through six. This is where it could get dicey, because of the whole Texas-Bama head-to-head thing.
I can’t emphasize enough how much the Tide knocking off Georgia likely changed the committee’s entire perception of that team. A week ago, they were a one-loss squad with three decent wins (No. 11 Ole Miss, No. 13 LSU and No. 21 Tennessee) that the committee ranked No. 8. Now they’re a 12-1 Power 5 champ with four Top 25 wins — including against the No. 1 team in the country — with their only loss coming back in Week 2 against a certain top-10 opponent.
Like it or not, Bama unquestionably has the best resume of any of the remaining teams. So much so that upon comparing the second group with the first group, I believe the committee would move the Tide ahead of Florida State — which has three Top 25 wins but no top-10 wins — to the No. 3 seed.
Florida State’s defense held Louisville to 77 rushing yards en route to the ACC title. (Bob Donnan / USA Today)7. Uh oh. Here it comes. Are you drunk??? Texas beat Alabama by TEN points ON THE ROAD. How can you move Alabama ahead of Texas???? Because they did not technically move Alabama ahead of Texas. They ranked a pool of six teams, in which Alabama came in third and the Horns came in … fifth? … sixth? It’s between 12-1 Georgia and 12-1 Texas. The Dawgs’ resume: Wins over No. 9 Missouri (30-21), No. 11 Ole Miss (52-17) and No. 24 Tennessee (38-10), with a loss to No. 8 Alabama (27-24). The Horns’ resume: Wins over No. 8 Alabama (34-24), No. 18 Oklahoma State (49-21) and No. 24 Kansas State (33-30 in overtime), and a loss to No. 12 Oklahoma (34-30).
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Georgia has a slightly better resume and was more dominant throughout the season, but Texas won its conference championship and the Dawgs did not. It’s a coin toss, but for the sake of this column, let’s say Texas comes in ahead at No. 5.
8. NOW, given the stakes, the committee would take a hard look at Florida State vs. Texas to be certain whether the Noles should remain at No. 4. This is where my intuition hits a wall because we truly have never faced a circumstance like we have with FSU and its quarterbacks. I think Texas would fare better than Jordan Travis-less FSU if you put both of them up against Michigan in a Playoff game. But, I’m the same person who thought Oregon would beat Washington on Friday, and Georgia would handle Alabama the next day. I’m not Nostradamus, and neither is the committee.
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Ultimately, I think they will keep the Noles at No. 4, for one simple, age-old justification: Florida State did not lose a game this season, and Texas did. Final four: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Florida State and No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Alabama.
But I don’t know why you’d listen to my opinion about any of this. I’m the same idiot who picked Alabama to go 9-3 before the season, then wondered if that was being optimistic after the Tide struggled to reach the end zone against USF in Week 3.
9. But seriously, who would have guessed that Alabama team would end the season 10 weeks later in exactly the same place most Nick Saban Alabama teams do: Hoisting an SEC championship trophy and awaiting its CFP opponent?
Much has been made of QB Jalen Milroe’s season-long progression, but the story of Saturday’s 27-24 win against the Dawgs was the Tide’s defense. Georgia has spent much of the past three seasons dictating the terms on offense, but Alabama shut down the Dawgs’ running game and covered the heck out of Brock Bowers and the Georgia receivers. QB Carson Beck did not find his rhythm until the Dawgs’ last-ditch TD drive, but by then it was too late.
Georgia deserves all the accolades on the planet for winning 29 consecutive games. In any other season, there would be ample room for both SEC teams, but not this one. And because the highest-ranked SEC or Big Ten team not in the Playoff goes to the Orange Bowl. Georgia’s likely consolation prize is a game against No. 14 Louisville.
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10. Time for another mea culpa. I spent most of the past three years in “I’ll see it when I believe it” mode with Steve Sarkisian and Texas. Well, I’ve seen it. Playoff berth or not, Texas — say it with me — is back.
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Sark spent much of Saturday’s 49-21 Big 12 championship rout of Oklahoma State reminding everyone of his savvy play calling, complete with a Quinn Ewers touchdown pass to 362-pound DT T’Vondre Sweat. But the Horns didn’t get to 12-1 through trick plays. At long last, Texas fielded a physical, fundamentally sound team that met the moment in all but one week.
In any other season, the Horns would have made the Playoff with ease. Instead, they’ll likely receive their first Cotton Bowl invite in 21 years, possibly to face Ohio State. A Fiesta Bowl matchup with 11-2 Oregon is also possible.
11. Michigan (13-0) has not yet won a CFP semifinal game, but it will begin its third consecutive trip in an unfamiliar role: as the favorite. The Wolverines, which unsurprisingly blanked Iowa 26-0 in Indianapolis, have been the season’s most consistent team. They appear to be the most complete team across all three phases. But I can think of one area of concern: They have yet to face an opposing QB on the level of Michael Penix, Milroe or even Ewers. Whether in the semifinal or a championship game, the tantalizing but inconsistent J.J. McCarthy will likely have to step up and outduel one of that trio.
I was hoping we’d get a Michigan-Washington Rose Bowl pairing for sentimental reasons, but that’s not likely how the seeds will fall. Short of that, the most intriguing postseason matchup might be Alabama-Michigan. Harbaugh vs. Saban for the national championship? ESPN execs would be peeled off their ceilings.
12. In November 2021, then-Washington AD Jennifer Cohen, now at USC, made the difficult decision to move on from her first football coaching hire, Jimmy Lake, after just 13 games. Her next hire now looks like one of the smartest in recent memory.
Kalen DeBoer was hardly an obvious choice after a two-season stint at Fresno State, with few even aware of his 67-3 record at NAIA Sioux Falls. With its 34-31 Pac-12 championship win against Oregon, Washington became the first team in Pac-12 history to achieve a 13-0 regular season and did it against the conference’s strongest lineup in years. DeBoer, now 9-0 against Top 25 teams, and OC Ryan Grubb always seem to have the perfect play call at the most critical junctures, and Penix and the Huskies make them happen.
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Chris Petersen’s 2016 Playoff team never had a chance against Alabama in that year’s semifinal. The 2023 Huskies, on the other hand, will be a tough out for Georgia or Michigan.
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13. I was at Oregon’s postgame news conference Friday night and watched Ducks star Bo Nix try to process in real-time that his five-year, 60-start college career had (likely) abruptly ended. He had quite the perspective at the moment.
“I played five really long seasons in college football. A lot of stuff has been going on, from conference realignment to NIL to COVID. I think me and several other guys from our year (2019), we’re one of the few guys that got to experience normal and crazy football in college. … Each year was something new.
So, I’m going to miss college football.”
Bo Nix passed for 239 yards with three TDs in Oregon’s loss to Washington in the Pac-12 championship. (Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)14. Nix’s rough night may have sealed the Heisman for LSU’s Jayden Daniels. Though Penix led his team to a perfect season, momentum for his candidacy waned down the stretch; even Friday night, he was overshadowed by Huskies RB Dillon Johnson’s 152 yards. If anything, you could make a better case for stud receiver Rome Odunze (81 catches, 1,428 yards, 13 TDs).
Statistically, Daniels had a season for the ages — 3,812 yards passing with 40 TDs and four INTs; 1,134 rushing yards and 10 TDs. But it still feels anticlimactic for a guy whose team was out of Playoff contention in September to run away with the trophy. Daniels is plenty deserving, it’s just unusual the way the race played out.
15. SMU (11-2) is having a heck of a fall. On Sept. 1, it got the call up to a Power 5 conference. Three months later, the Mustangs closed out their AAC tenure by knocking off No. 22 Tulane (11-2) 26-14 to earn their first conference title of any kind since 1984. They did it despite losing star QB Preston Stone for the season last week. His replacement, redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings, threw two interceptions, but SMU’s top-10 defense stifled the Green Wave’s normally strong running game, holding them to 31 yards on 26 attempts.
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While SMU was unranked last week, my hunch is the Mustangs wind up passing undefeated Liberty for the Group of 5 New Year’s Six berth due to the Flames’ weak schedule. Another tough decision for the committee on Sunday morning.
16. Liberty’s Jamey Chadwell completed his latest masterpiece Friday night when the 24th-ranked Flames beat New Mexico State (10-4) 49-35 in the Conference USA Championship Game to complete a 13-0 season. Not bad for Liberty’s first year in a conference. Chadwell is now 44-6 dating to his breakout 2020 season at Coastal Carolina and has won four conference championships dating to his 2015 season at FCS Charleston Southern.
Liberty, which did not play a Power 5 foe this season, played the easiest FBS schedule in the country, per ESPN’s rankings, but winning every week against anyone is no small feat. Hopefully, ESPN Events, which owns and operates most of the Group of 5 bowls, can find the Flames a worthy opponent if they miss out on a New Year’s Six bowl game.
17. Boise State was sitting at 5-5 overall when, on Nov. 12, AD Jeremiah Dickey fired third-year coach Andy Avalos and promoted DC Spencer Danielson as interim coach. Three weeks later, the Broncos (8-5) captured a surprise Mountain West championship, drilling UNLV (9-4) 44-20 at Allegiant Stadium. Boise State is one of the most attractive G5 jobs in the country, and Dickey may well have his eyes on respected outside candidates, but there will surely be a strong push locally to give the job to Danielson, 35, a Boise staffer since 2017. At the very least, he’ll be leading the Broncos in the Dec. 16 L.A. Bowl against a Pac-12 foe.
18. Troy coach Jon Sumrall is now 2-for-2 when it comes to winning conference championships. The Trojans (11-2) defended their crown with a 49-23 rout of Appalachian State (8-5), raising their second-year head coach’s record to 23-4. They are the rare Group of 5 power that makes its living off its defense, which ranked 11th nationally heading into Saturday. Sumrall will get plucked by a major program at some point, but selfishly, I hope he stays for at least one more season.
Why? Troy visits Iowa in Week 3 next season. Strength vs. strength.
19. It’s almost impossible to keep up with which G5 schools are in which conferences these days. Except in the MAC, where Miami (Ohio) (11-2), a league member since 1947, earned a 23-14 championship win against Toledo (11-2), a league member since 1950. In his 10th season at the helm, coach Chuck Martin has led the RedHawks to 11 wins for the first time since Ben Roethlisberger’s 13-1 team in 2003. Martin was a three-time national champ at Division II Grand Valley State before rejoining former boss Brian Kelly at Notre Dame in 2010. It’s been a slow build in Oxford, but he’s now won two MAC championships since 2019.
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20. Finally, if you want a little preview of what Selection Sunday will look like in 2024 and beyond, note that the biggest debate right now would be which of 10-2 Penn State, 10-2 Ole Miss and 10-2 Oklahoma would get the last two at-large spots. All the arguments above regarding Alabama, Texas and Florida State would still be happening, but only to settle which two got a first-round bye. All of which sounds a bit anticlimactic.
But in 2023, at least one of those three is not going to have the opportunity to compete for a national championship, because 13 people staring at their computer screens said so.
That sounds like a glitch in need of a fix. And to think, if not for a bad case of spite by “The Alliance” (ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12) two years ago, it would already be in place.
(Top photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
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